Here is a presentation (in spanish) on rationality for skepticamp I’ve worked on recently. It needs some polish but the content is essentially complete. A summary of the main points

**epistemic rationality**as a component of intelligence

**uncertainty**

**ideal rationality**. Other methods are suboptimal approximations

- Provides a quantitative model of the
**scientific method**as a special case of Bayes theorem - Provides operational, quantitative definitions of
**belief**and**evidence** - Naturally relates predictive power and falsifiability through the sum rule of probability
- Explains pathological beliefs of the
**vacuous**kind; astrology, card reading, divination, etc - Explains pathological beliefs of the
**floating**kind; “There is a dragon in my garage” - Exposes
**fraudulent retrodiction**; astrology, cold reading, ad-hoc hypothesis, bad science, bad economics, etc - Dissolves false disagreements described by matching predictions but different verbal formulations
- Naturally embeds empiricism, positivism and falsificationism

**physical phenomena**in brains, the province of cognitive science.

Recommended reading

Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

Bayesian Theory (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)

Hume’s Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Various papers

Bayesian probability – Bruyninckx(2002)

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics – Gelman(2011)

Varieties of Bayesianism – Weisberg

No Free Lunch versus Occam’s Razor in Supervised Learning – Lattimore, Hutter(2011)

A Material Theory of Induction – Norton(2002)

Bayesian epistemology – Hartmann, Sprenger(2010)

The Illusion of Ambiguity: from Bistable Perception to Anthropomorphism – Ghedini(2011)

Bayesian Rationality and Decision Making: A Critical Review – Albert(2003)

Why Bayesian Rationality Is Empty, Perfect Rationality Doesn’t Exist, Ecological Rationality Is Too Simple, and Critical Rationality Does the Job* – Albert(2009)

A Better Bayesian Convergence Theorem – Hawthorne

Bayesian epistemology (stanford)

lesswrong.com (excellent blog on rationality)

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